M A Y / J U N E 2 0 1 7 4 POTATO GROWER 4 POTATO GROWER 2016 Could Influence 2017 Planting by Ted Kreis, NPPGA Marketing and Communications Director How many potato acres will be planted in North Dakota is more difficult to project this spring than in most years because of several factors including last year’s wet weather which could be a big influencer. Growers in northeastern North Dakota where most of the state’s fresh crop is grown are coming off a difficult year when more than 30 percent of their crop was lost to persistent wet conditions; a pattern that continued well into the win- ter with above average snowfall and shows signs of returning this spring. Last year’s poor fresh crop triggered some changes in the Red River Valley. The val- ley's largest red potato grower has changed his business model and will greatly reduce acres, and he’s not alone, other fresh growers are also showing restraint. In another development, a wash plant in the northern valley has come under new ownership. Northern Valley Growers in Hoople has been sold and will become H&S FreshPak. The new owners are two well established potato operations in the northern valley, O.C. Schulz & Sons locat- ed in Crystal, North Dakota and J.G. Hall & Sons from Hoople. They will own and operate the plant as a separate entity. Seed availability has also been mentioned as a limiting factor. Kent Sather, head of the North Dakota Certified Seed Potato program says, “In North Dakota, it seems all of the red varieties are sold out. My concern is if growers can’t find enough certified seed, more year-out, non-certi- fied seed may be replanted to fill acreage.” Sather urges growers not to do this as it carries a risk of higher mosaic levels in the region, serving as inoculums for possible current season spread into otherwise clean certified seed lots planted nearby. Our own survey indicates red potato acres will be down over eight percent in the Red River Valley. Meanwhile yellow acres will continue their slow but steady increase, a trend we have seen for the past seven years. Some of this is in response to nationwide consumer trends which show a leveling off of red demand and a continuing increase in demand for yellow potatoes. Planting intentions and production for frozen processing in North Dakota and Minnesota is much easier to forecast because acres are contracted, and second- ly they are grown on sandier irrigated soil which yields much more consistently year to year. That said, changes are taking place in the frozen sector also. The days of con- tracting non-irri- gated potatoes for frozen processors seems to be coming to an end which could mean fewer potato acres as processors turn to higher yielding irrigat- ed acres. Will any of the growers that lost process- ing contracts switch to growing fresh? Seed availability, alternate crop options and market access may limit this from happening on a large scale. Potato economist and analyst Bruce Huffaker, publisher of the North American Potato Market News has issued his forecast which estimates North Dakota's potato acres, (fresh, chip, seed and frozen processing combined) will be down 2,000 acres (2.5%) and Minnesota acres will be up about 1,000 acres or 2.5%. Huffaker projects potato acres nationwide to be relatively unchanged. Forecasting acres is difficult enough but forecasting production is even more diffi- cult, especially on non-irrigated land in the Red River Valley. As an example, the Red River Valley came off its largest fresh crop since the 1970's in 2015 and without changing acres appreciably followed up with their smallest crop in recent years in 2016. So conceivably, even if acres are down in 2017, there is a good chance pro- duction, especially in the hard hit fresh sector could top last year with better growing conditions. Only time will tell. The lingering effects of the 2016 wet summer in northeast North Dakota could influence potato planting in 2017.